Flood threats from China

A flood of problems

China plans to divert Tibetan rivers to its water-starved regions, which is bad news for India both economically and environmentally, writes MSMenon


The Himalayas constitute one of the largest reservoirs of snow and ice in the world and the perennial flow of the rivers originating from the glaciers ensure a stable supply of water to regions dominated by the monsoon rains. Consequently, the hydrological regimes of the rivers –Jndus, Brahmaputhra, etc.-originating from Tibet, are sustained by this important feature.
For many years since independence, India held the view that there would not be any problem of reduced flows in these rivers considering the terrain and population conditions in Tibet. But recent Chinese activities to exploit the potential of Sutlej and Brahmaputhra (Yarlung Tsangpo) within its territory have fuelled many misgivings in India
One of the serious problems facing China today is water scarcity. The mighty Yellow river is presently reduced to a seasonal stream and Yangtse river, too, is in a critical situation. Since China does not want its aspiration to superpower status thwarted by water crisis, it decided to exploit the bounteous water reserves in the Tibetan region to augment its hydropower and irrigation needs.
Chinese experts have found the diversion of waters from the wet south to the arid north through three links- the eastern, central and western – to be the best option to ward off the crisis. The southern part of the western link envisages the diversion of the upper Brahmaputhra. They have also identified the huge hydropower potential available for cascade development in the upper Mekong (Lancang river),upper Brahmaputhra ( having hydropotential more than twice the Three Gorges Project) and Sutlej (offering immense power).
Based on these findings, China planned eight hydro –dams in the Mekong basin. Of these, two have been completed and one is under construction. The co-basin states of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand protested, but China did not bother; neither did it care for the objections raised by the Mekong River Commission, stating that it is not a member in MRC.
Subsequently, the downstream states alleged that the indiscriminate Chinese reservoir operations affected their agriculture, fisheries and tourism activities and the devastating floods of 2002 in their areas occurred due to China releasing more water than normal from its reservoirs into the river below during the period of heavy down pours . But China went ahead with its projects.
Reports on the Chinese plans to divert the Tsangpo had been appearing in the media since last few decades and China continued to deny these. The proposals quoted in the Executive Intelligence Review Special Report (1982) detailed the diversion plans for annual power generation of 240 to 330 billion units. A report in the Scientific American (1996) narrated the plans to divert the Tsangpo waters to Gobi desert blasting a 20km. Channel through the Himalayas using nuclear explosives.
After many such reports in the media, in 2003, Chinese official news agency, Xinhua, confirmed plans for Tsangpo Water Diversion Project having two components; one, a power plant with an installed capacity of more than 40,000 mw to utilise the potential of the river falling through 3000 m. in a length of 200 km; two, the diversion of water by pumping to the north-western provinces of Xingjiang and Gansu. The project will be sited at the Great Bend where the river takes a U- turn to enter India; the construction is scheduled from 2009.
The existing Sutlej barrage and the planned structures on Brahmaputhra have the potential to control river flows into India. For example, if the Chinese divert waters during the glacial melting periods and release large flood flows during the monsoon, Indian irrigation and power projects would suffer.
The flash floods in August 2000 when water levels in Sutlej rose by about 30 m. In two hours at the Nathpa Jhakri Project (NJP) left behind a trail of destruction in the state. Luckily, the Bhakra reservoir downstream could absorb the floods, thereby containing the devastation of lower reaches. Almost during the same period, floods from the Tibetan Brahmaputhra devastated many parts of Arunachal Pradesh. The flow patterns indicated dam failure. Though china denied it, satellite imageries confirmed broken structures in Tsangpo.
Similar flood situations in Sutlej necessitating closure of NJP and evacuation of people from adjoining areas had occurred on a few occasions since 2004.
Presently, there are no agreements between India and China on trans-boundary rivers. Even in the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, China is not a party. Hence, regarding the utilisation of Tibetan rivers, China is not answerable to India under any treaty provisions. Hence, India has to strive to bring China under a treaty for the use of the Tibetan rivers. We should also use this opportunity to seek a review of the Indus Waters Treaty.
Interestingly, some time back, the Chinese National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage had shown interest to enter into an MOU with the Indian National Committee for exchanging information on water related issues. But the mandarins of India’s Water Resources Ministry, in their wisdom, decided not to encourage it. Recently, China has shown renewed interest to activate the joint mechanism set up in November, 2006 for sharing hydrological information on these rivers. It is for India to seize this opportunity.
Also, India has to take steps to minimise the impact on its rivers due to upstream operations such as reduced flows or flash floods. The actions include (a) setting up of more flow forecasting stations and (b) construction of cascade projects on rivers near the border to facilitate flood absorption and water conservation. Hence the proposed Khab project(s) on Sutlej and the Siang project(s) on Brahmaputhra have strategic importance.
India has to take special interest and act fast to implement these schemes to take care of the threats from the Tibetan rivers.

(The Pioneer, dated,18th December, 2007)